Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha lineage and its correlation with quantitative wastewater-based epidemiology data.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) gave rise to an international public health emergency in 3 months after its emergence in Wuhan, China. Typically for an RNA virus, random mutations occur constantly leading to new lineages, incidental with a higher transmissibility. The highly infective alpha lineage, firstly discovered in the UK, led to elevated mortality and morbidity rates as a consequence of Covid-19, worldwide. Wastewater surveillance proved to be a powerful tool for early detection and subsequent monitoring of the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in a defined catchment. Using a combination of sequencing and RT-qPCR approaches, we investigated the total SARS-CoV-2 concentration and the emergence of the alpha lineage in wastewater samples in Vienna, Austria linking it to clinical data. Based on a non-linear regression model and occurrence of signature mutations, we conclude that the alpha variant was present in Vienna sewage samples already in December 2020, even one month before the first clinical case was officially confirmed and reported by the health authorities. This provides evidence that a well-designed wastewater monitoring approach can provide a fast snapshot and may detect the circulating lineages in wastewater weeks before they are detectable in the clinical samples. Furthermore, declining 14 days prevalence data with simultaneously increasing SARS-CoV-2 total concentration in wastewater indicate a different shedding behavior for the alpha variant. Overall, our results support wastewater surveillance to be a suitable approach to spot early circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages based on whole genome sequencing and signature mutations analysis.

The impact of mobility network properties on predicted epidemic dynamics in Dhaka and Bangkok.

Properties of city-level commuting networks are expected to influence epidemic potential of cities and modify the speed and spatial trajectory of epidemics when they occur. In this study, we use aggregated mobile phone user data to reconstruct commuter mobility networks for Bangkok (Thailand) and Dhaka (Bangladesh), two megacities in Asia with populations of 16 and 21 million people, respectively. We model the dynamics of directly-transmitted infections (such as SARS-CoV-2) propagating on these commuting networks, and find that differences in network structure between the two cities drive divergent predicted epidemic trajectories: the commuting network in Bangkok is composed of geographically-contiguous modular communities and epidemic dispersal is correlated with geographic distance between locations, whereas the network in Dhaka has less distinct geographic structure and epidemic dispersal is less constrained by geographic distance. We also find that the predicted dynamics of epidemics vary depending on the local topology of the network around the origin of the outbreak. Measuring commuter mobility, and understanding how commuting networks shape epidemic dynamics at the city level, can support surveillance and preparedness efforts in large cities at risk for emerging or imported epidemics.